field notes
harpy
module·Apr 13, 2026·5 min read

Harpy Polymarket — on-chain events

Cross-market arb engine and event scanner. Latency arbitrage on crypto binaries, AI-scanned event markets with deep research. No paper mode.

Polymarket is the strangest market in the suite. It settles on-chain in USDC, which means there is no paper mode: the scanner either moves real dollars or it reads-only. That single constraint shapes every design decision in this module.

The latency-arb engine

One of the two Polymarket scanners watches binary crypto markets — “will BTC be above $X at close?” style — and cross- references them against the underlying spot price from multiple exchanges. When a Polymarket binary gets mispriced relative to the implied probability the spot price suggests (and the mispricing is wide enough to cover commission and gas), the engine fires. The edges are thin, the windows are short, and the gas has to be in your wallet.

The event scanner

The other scanner works slower markets — politics, economy, geopolitics, sports ladders — where the edge is research, not latency. It reads news feeds, official filings, betting-market consensus, and social-media sentiment, then compares its estimated probability to the market price. Targets cross the bar at value-ratio ≥ 1.25 and a confidence floor of medium.

Wallet setup

Polymarket is on Polygon. The setup wizard collects four mandatory fields (live toggle, wallet private key, Polymarket funder address, signature type) plus an optional CLOB API trio that speeds up order signing. A burner wallet is strongly recommended — the private key signs every order. The wizard is a hard gate: until all four mandatory fields are in, the dashboard stays blocked.

What it won’t do

  • It won’t take a position in a market that will resolve in under 24 hours without a specific high-conviction catalyst.
  • It won’t scale into a losing position.
  • It won’t front-run an official announcement it can’t verify a source for.
  • It won’t hold through regulatory risk — any “will Polymarket be banned in X” meta-market is off-limits.

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